8501.0 - Retail Trade, Australia, May 2006

ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 03/07/2006

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MAY KEY FIGURES

		May 06	Apr 06 to May 06
		$m	% change

Turnover at current prices
	Trend estimates	17 898.2	0.5
	Seasonally adjusted estimates	17 833.6	-0.3

Monthly turnover, Trend estimates - % change
Graph: Monthly turnover, Trend estimate, Percentage change

MAY KEY POINTS

TREND ESTIMATES

The trend estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series increased by 0.5% in May 2006. This follows an increase of 0.6% in April and a revised increase of 0.6% in March 2006.
In May 2006, the states with the largest increase in the trend estimate were the Northern Territory (+1.3%), Western Australia (+0.9%) and Victoria (+0.8%), while Tasmania (-0.1%) was the only state with a decline.

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

The seasonally adjusted estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series decreased by 0.3% in May 2006. This follows revised increases of 1.1% in April 2006 and 0.4% in March 2006.
Only the Northern Territory (+2.1%), Western Australia (+0.9%) and Tasmania (+0.6%) had increases in the seasonally adjusted estimates, while Victoria (-0.9%) had the largest decrease.

ORIGINAL ESTIMATES

In original terms, Australian turnover increased by 1.5% in May 2006 compared with April 2006. Chains and other large retailers (which are completely enumerated) increased by 0.4%, while the estimate for 'smaller' retailers (the sampled units) increased by 2.8%.
Australian turnover increased by 6.0% in May 2006 compared with May 2005. Chains and other large retailers increased by 6.6%, while 'smaller' retailers increased by 5.3%.

NOTES

FORTHCOMING ISSUES

ISSUE	Release Date
June 2006	2 August 2006
July 2006	30 August 2006
August 2006	3 October 2006
September 2006	2 November 2006
October 2006	30 November 2006
November 2006	9 January 2007

CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

There are no changes in this issue.

CHANGES IN SPREADSHEETS FOR RETAIL TRADE, AUSTRALIA

An information paper advising users of proposed changes to the time series spreadsheets associated with this publication, resulting from the conversion of the current Lotus 1-2-3 .wks spreadsheets to Excel .xls format, will be released on 5 July. The changes will take effect from the July 2006 issue of the publication.

SAMPLING ERRORS

Standard errors for the Australian estimates (original data) for May 2006 contained in this publication are:

Data Series	Estimate	Standard error

Level of retail turnover ($m)	17 313.3	141.8
Change from preceding month ($m)	247.7	52.5
% change from preceding month (%)	1.5	0.3

For more information see the Explanatory Notes, paragraphs 32-36.

INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Graham Phillips on Canberra (02) 6252 5625.

INDUSTRY TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

TOTAL RETAIL

There has been moderate trend growth for the last six months. Food retailing and Household good retailing have had moderate growth for that period and Hospitality and services has had moderate growth for the last three months after strong growth for the previous five months. Other retailing has had strong trend growth for seven months and Recreational good retailing continues in decline.

FOOD RETAILING

There has been moderate growth in the trend since December 2005. Victoria and the Northern Territory have had strong trend growth for the last four months, while Queensland and Western Australia have had moderate growth for the last two months. The Australian Capital Territory has been in decline for six months.

DEPARTMENT STORES

There has been weak trend growth for the last two months. In May 2006, New South Wales was flat and Victoria and Queensland had weak trend growth. South Australia had moderate trend growth over the last five months, while Western Australia had moderate trend growth in May 2006 after five months of strong growth.

Graph: Industry trends_Department stores

CLOTHING AND SOFT GOOD RETAILING

The trend growth has been weak for five months. South Australia and Western Australia have had strong trend growth for five and eight months respectively. New South Wales has had weak trend growth for four months and Victoria and Queensland have been in decline for at least eight months.

Graph: Industry trends_Clothing and soft good retailing

HOUSEHOLD GOOD RETAILING

There has been moderate trend growth for six months. New South Wales has had weak growth in this period. Victoria and Tasmania have had moderate trend growth for four and three months respectively, while Western Australia (six months) and South Australia (two months) have had strong growth.

Graph: Industry trends_Household good retailing

RECREATIONAL GOOD RETAILING

The trend has continued to be in decline for 13 months. Victoria, Western Australia and Tasmania have been in decline for at least six months. In contrast, the Northern Territory has had strong trend growth for four months.

Graph: Industry trends_Recreational good retailing

OTHER RETAILING

There has been strong growth in the trend for the last seven months. Victoria and Queensland have had strong trend growth for at least six months. Trend growth in South Australia has been slowing and has gone into decline in the last two months.

TOTAL RETAIL (EXCLUDING HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES)

Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services) has had moderate trend growth in the last six months. Over the last seven months, the trend growth for Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services) has mostly been slower than Total industries (including Hospitality and services).

Graph: Industry trends_Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services)

HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES

There has been moderate or strong growth in the trend for at least 15 months. Victoria, Western Australia and the Australian Capital Territory have had strong growth for at least five months. Trend growth has been slowing in South Australia (moderate growth in May 2006), Northern Territory (moderate growth), New South Wales (weak growth), Queensland (in decline) and Tasmania (in decline).

Graph: Industry trends_Hospitality and services

STATE TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

NEW SOUTH WALES

There has been weak trend growth in the last two months, which follows moderate growth in the previous five months. Recreational good retailing and Other retailing have had moderate trend growth for the last two months. Other industries have had weak growth for at least the last two months, except Department stores which was flat in May 2006.

VICTORIA

There has been strong trend growth for five months. Hospitality and services, Other retailing and Food retailing have had strong trend growth for at least the last four months. Clothing and soft good retailing and Recreational good retailing remain in decline.

QUEENSLAND

There has been moderate trend growth for at least 15 months. Food retailing has had moderate trend growth for five months. Department stores and Recreational good retailing had weak trend growth in May 2006. Clothing and soft good retailing, Household good retailing and Hospitality and services have been in decline for at least three months, while Other retailing has had strong trend growth for eight months.

SOUTH AUSTRALIA

There has been moderate growth in the trend estimate over the last three months. Department stores has had moderate growth over the last five months. Over the same period, Clothing and soft good retailing has had strong growth. Hospitality and services had moderate trend growth in May 2006 after five months of strong growth. Household good retailing had strong trend growth in April and May 2006.

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

There has been strong growth in the trend estimate for five months. Clothing and soft good retailing (eight months), Household good retailing (six months) and Hospitality and services (five months) have all had strong trend growth. Department stores had moderate trend growth in May 2006 after five months of strong growth.

TASMANIA

The trend was in decline in May 2006. The trends for Hospitality and services and Recreational good retailing have been in decline for at least four months. Food retailing and Clothing and soft good retailing were flat in May 2006. Household good retailing has had moderate growth over the last three months.